Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
